Permanent Stimulus For Economic Growth
The countries which had shown a good growth rate , growing for long periods of time, provided stimulus to the Economic growth through well defined / planned economic policies which are in contravention of the prescribed economic Policies for Growth. Two examples today are China and USA. In USA, the government went ahead providing stimulus in the form of Moral Support to Industries, Benign Policies, Low interest rates and heavy borrowing from the other countries to Sustain the Economic Growth. This was mainly supported by Dollar which is the most accepted currency in the world coupled with the fact that a robust capital market which provided avenue for raising funds through various instruments not only domestically but also from outside US . The stimulus in US was given at the cost of general health of the Economy, which is very fragile, even today.
Whereas in the case of China, the stimulus for the Economy was provided through many ways and till today, the stimulus continues for a long period of time which is helping the Economy to show continuous good rate of growth. The following factors helped the Chinese Economy to sustain the growth rate even today.
1. Grand Vision. The Political Leadership decided that China should become an Industrial power and in line with the Population rank, they should develop their industries and take them to number one in the field they were operating. With that in Mind, the plans drawn for Economic Development and Infrastructure Development were in line with the objectives of reaching number one position in many segments of the industry.
2. Export Led Strategy. The policy makers identified that to become an industrial power they had to go for cost leadership strategy which would help to achieve a very high level of exports, since the strategy would create a competitive position which would be difficult for other countries to challenge. The cost leadership was pursued with great vigour and the country achieved the cost leadership position in the areas where they became leaders in exports. This helped to increase the size of manufacturing in the overall economy as well as earn Forex in a big way. The exports were subsidized at every level of value chain in the production system.
3. Risky Lending practices. Since most of the enterprises in China belonged to Government and earlier government owned enterprises, the loans were disbursed violating the prudent practices on lending. At one point in time, in this century, the NPA in Chinese Banking system was close to 50%. Since there was no pressure for the enterprises to worry about financial management, they pursued the production targets with increased focus. The focus of corporates were on production than on any other function.
4. Low Interest Rates. The government has a full control on the banking system and ensured that the loans are available at very competitive rates. The interest constituted a very small portion of the overall cost of products. The competitive interest rates in the economy helped Large, Medium and Small Enterprises to avail loans at attractive rates. This has substituted the minimal participation of stock markets in the Chinese Economy. Only in the last few years, the stock markets have become vibrant and Investment in equity by retail investors is showing signs of promise.
5. Inflation. Since there was a good control on Interest rates and the domestic economy was under the full control of the government, Inflation levels were at reasonable levels. The government had taken concerted efforts to control inflation .At CPI level , only in 2007, the it was above 4 at 4.8 and at 5.9 in 2008 but it came down to – 0.7% in 2009.
6. Fixed Exchange rate. For a long period of time, the government pegged its currency to the dollar and even after deciding that they should move towards realistic rates, the currency was allowed to appreciate marginally, only for a few months and again a strategy of pegging the currency to the dollar policy was pursued. This helped the country to retain its competitiveness in exports.
7. Large inflow of funds. Since the economy had shown a good promise for growth and the currency fluctuation was minimized, the country was able to attract large amount of foreign funds. Despite, large inflow of foreign funds, the enterprises were certain about exchange rates and its minimal impact on financial performance . Hence they concentrated more on the core business than on managing finance.
8. Control on Cost of other resources. There is a system of permission for workers to work in one city , thereby restricting the free movement of labour across the cities/towns. Further, the workers are made to work long hours with clearly defined targets for production. Since government transferred the companies to private sector, in most cases, the transfer price of enterprises to private sector was at very low rates which resulted in lower Depreciation and other infrastructure costs.
9. Good Implementation. After planning large projects, the best practices in project implementation was adopted and mammoth projects were completed as per the plans and achievement of physical targets took precedence over the financial aspects.
10. Political System. All the above was possible , since the entire country is run like a Corporate Enterprise. Those who reach the central leadership should have demonstrated their skills at lower levels of administration ,where they were able to demonstrate their competence and management skills. When investment takes place at a provincial level, the provincial authority has the full powers to give licenses and the levels of decision making was less and the uncertainity in implementation of projects was minimized. This will be very difficult in a democratic and plural society where the views of all the stakeholders are to be taken before making decisions.
There are concerns that the Chinese growth will come to a stop and the bubble will burst. This is not likely to happen, since China is a large country and still many regions are in the process of development and many people are under poverty line. The growth in China would be sustained through the increase in Domestic consumption even if the Trade position deteriorates with developed countries but likely to be off set by trade with developing countries ( where China has started increasing the engagement with these countries in a big way). China is likely to continue the Stimulus it is providing for many more years and it has developed the required resources to support this growth. But the extent and nature of stimulus provided will vary from what was observed in the past.
It will be a challenge for Democratic countries and countries with higher level of transparency to adopt all the practices like in China but at least the aspects relating to Management of the Economy including Management of Interest rates, Inflation, Currency Management and Project Planning and Management could be strengthened to achieve higher levels of Economic Growth.
