Saturday, November 7, 2020

 

ANALYSIS

 

Updated on : Wednesday, October 28, 2020, 3:17 PM IST

Atmanirbhar Bharat and Free Tree Agreements: Can both go hand in hand?

By R Kannan

Atmar Nirbar Bharat and Free Tree Agreements: Can both go hand in hand? ANI

  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  

Free trade agreement (FTA), a form of trade pacts, determine the tariffs and duties that countries impose on imports and exports to reduce or eliminate trade barriers. Thus, encouraging trade between countries. The agreements are focussed on providing for preferential tariff treatment. The deal also often include clauses on trade facilitation and rule-making in areas such as investment, intellectual property, government procurement, technical standards and sanitary and phytosanitary issues.

The advantages of these agreements are many. Countries like Singapore and Vietnam benefitted a lot from the FTAs. These agreements helped these countries, helped them to improve the international trade volumes and emerge as leading nations in trading. The leading trading nations in the world benefitted from the FTAs they have signed with many countries in the world.

The main advantages of FTAs are: increased economic growth, increased ease of doing business, lower expenditure by the government on subsidies, increased FDI, development of global expertise and access to the latest technologies.

The agreements help to produce the goods in which there is a comparative advantage. International trade enables countries to obtain the advantages of specialisation. International trade permits industry to take full advantages of the economies of scale (large-scale production). If certain goods were produced only for the home market, it would not be possible to achieve the full advantage of large-scale production.

FTA permits industry to take full advantages of the economies of scale (large-scale production). If certain goods were produced only for the home market, it would not be possible to achieve the full advantage of large-scale production. Free trade is often an efficient way of breaking up domestic monopolies. International trade and commercial relations often lead to an interchange of knowledge, ideas and culture between nations.

Free trade increases the earnings of all the factors as they are engaged in the production of those goods in which the country has a comparative advantage. Consumers of the different countries get the best quality foreign goods, often of a wider range of choice, at low prices. Free trade stimulates home producers, who face foreign competition, to put forth their best effort and thus increase managerial efficiency.

FTA also puts pressure on several fronts including increased outsourcing from other countries, theft of IPR, affecting the performance of domestic industries. The disadvantages of Free Trade include the dependence of a country on other countries increases. The domestic industries of the developing countries would not be able to develop rapidly due to the superior strength of foreign industries. The foreign companies become dominant players in the local market. This could lead to a lot of imports which are not essential for the country. Many a times, free trade creates a lot of geo-political and geo-economic issues between nations.

In the last three years, there is increased protectionism being seen in the leading trading countries in the world. This has been aggravated by coronavirus. The rise in protectionism due to coronavirus has made governments across the world to review their approach to globalisation, including by calling for supply-chain reshoring and heightening their scrutiny of foreign direct investment. Calls for trade diversification is expected to gain further traction in 2021. Strategies of nearshoring with supply chains becoming more regionalised—will become the norm going forward.

The present situation and the state of geopolitics and geo-economics offers a lot of opportunities for India to realise the vision of 25 per cent of GDP to come from manufacturing. The 'Make in India' can be given a good boost. Further to achieve the desired higher economic growth rate, India has to increase trade growth in big way. The leading economists in the world believe that India can achieve higher economic growth by giving a big boost to trade. When India was growing at a fast pace, trade contributed to the growth of the economy.

Prime Minister’s Programme of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, which translates to 'self-reliant India' or 'self-sufficient India', is the vision of the Prime Minister of India of making India "a bigger and more important part of the global economy", pursuing policies that are efficient, competitive and resilient, and being self-sustaining and self-generating. Atmanirbhar Bharat does not mean self-containment, isolating away from the world or being protectionist. Under this programme, already more than 27 sectors identified for growth.

The government has also brought out production-linked incentives. After the announcement of the programme, many of the global multinationals in the world expressed their interest to set up their manufacturing operations in India. A few large multinationals like Samsung have already announced their plans to set up large factories in India.

In the central government budget also, there was an emphasis to increase the presence of Indian industries in the global value chain. The countries, which are leading global value chain, have more liberal trade policies and many FTAs. Bangladesh and Vietnam with more liberal policies overtook India in apparel exports and emerged as preferred nations for new factories in Asia.

India’s experience of the signing of these agreements is mixed. In many instances, after signing the agreement, the objectives set while signing the agreement were not achieved. The nations which signed the agreements benefitted more from the agreements. This is one of the reasons, India is treading carefully in signing new agreements. In fact, in some of the earlier agreements, the terms of the agreement were modified to protect India’s interests. In the last few years, India’s trade with Asian nations reduced but the trade with the US and Europe increased. There were review and renegotiation of the existing FTAs with ASEAN, Japan and Korea, and at the same time, forging enhanced trade alliances with the European Union, UK, US and Australia.

India can formulate a strategy, which will increase the exports and trade of India and contribute to a significant increase in economic growth. The FTA strategy to be formulated should take into consideration the following.

Government policies for the identified sectors should take into account the entire ecosystem for the sectors. The role of each stakeholder in the ecosystem should be identified and policies evolved should facilitate the balanced growth of all the stakeholders. The trade policies relating to these sectors should be liberalised after taking into consideration the protection of stakeholders who are likely to be affected by the policies. Schemes should be developed for the stakeholders who will be affected by the new policies.

Improving the Competitiveness of the sectors identified. Many sectors in India are already globally competitive. The sectors like automobiles, pharma, chemicals, apparels, IT&ITES, R&D. But in a sector like apparels, countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam have improved their competitiveness. For the identified sectors, the best practices adopted by other countries to achieve the leadership should be studied in detail and strategies could be evolved to achieve competitiveness.

To become a part of the global value chain, it is very important the input costs and cost of factors of production are very competitive. There is a need to lower duties on raw materials and intermediate goods. In a few products, there is also an inverted duty structure.

The government is working on a strategy of improving the quality standards in different industries. The conferences on improving quality were also held in collaboration with a leading institution like CII. Quality standards have to be defined and it should cover the entire ecosystem and value chain of an industry which have been identified for growth.

Logistics cost is one of the highest in the world today at 14 per cent of GDP. The government’s objective is to bring this down to 9 to 10 per cent of the logistics cost like the developed countries. This will go a big way in improving competitiveness. Towards this end, many initiatives on railways, waterways , logistics parks and centres were developed. This will go a big way in reducing the logistics cost.

After corona, every country in the world is concerned about protecting the local industries. It is very difficult to fully open the trade because MSMEs in India contribute a lot to the GDP and exports. They required government support during the liberalisation process. If a country has to improve the exports, then the export and import policies should be very liberal. There should be policies to ensure an easy import of components and raw material. The policies should consider a calibrated and phased approach to liberalise the trade in phases.

The new policies by the government have created a lot of interest from leading manufacturers in the world to set up their factories in India. Formulating a FTA policy taking into consideration the above aspects will help to make India a preferred location for manufacturing and accelerating the economic growth through increased trade.

R Kannan is an expert in finance and strategy with more than 35 years’ experience. He has been associated with TCS, Hinduja Group, ICICI Bank, among others.

 

https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/atmanirbhar-bharat-and-free-tree-agreements-can-both-go-hand-in-hand

 

 Article on Public Private Partnership published by Free Press Journal


Updated on : Sunday, October 18, 2020, 12:27 AM IST

PPP collaborative models to stimulate economic growth

By R Kannan

  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  


COVID-19 was a black swan event and came as a total surprise to the world. Every segment of the society has been affected, central governments,  provincial governments, governments at the local levels, corporates and individuals. The initial expectation of COVID-19 was that it would go away soon but it was proven wrong. Based on the experience of the 2008 crisis, countries in the world were very fast to announce large stimulus measures, which has ensured good liquidity in the system. Because of the large stimulus in many countries, in many of the developed countries in the world, the slide in growth was restricted and short-term pain was reduced.

Crisis of this order, weaken the finances of all segments of the society. Despite the traditional streams of finance showing signs of decline, the government has the facility to borrow more to provide finance to the segments which require the funds and liquidity.

In India, the government was very fast to announce the measures to alleviate the pain. More than 80 crore of those who are below the poverty line and the farmers were given free rations and cash in the form of grant/direct transfer. A robust stimulus programme was announced to ensure the viability of MSMEs in India. The measures were also taken to address the issues in sectors like Banking, NBFCs and Realty. In the latest IMF economic forecast, the expectation is that the Indian Economy will contract by 10.3 per cent. According to the IMF and many of the economists/analysts, there is both fiscal and monetary space available to accelerate the growth rate in India. The economic growth will make many sectors viable, reduce the NPA in the banking system, create jobs and reduce the need for more concessions from the government.

The liquidity in the banking system is good and there is no demand for funds from various sectors, due to poor capacity utilisation. Bringing down the interest rates further, will affect the profitability of banks, reduce the income of senior citizen investors and reduce the income for those who are depending on interest income. Further, reducing the interest rate will make investments from abroad unattractive.

To make the country recover and be resilient, the estimates are that in the worst-case scenario, Rs 30 trillion of funds may be required by central and state governments to bridge the funding gap and they may have to increase the borrowing up to Rs. 30 trillion. The choice available for the central government to raise funds required from traditional sources is limited. The two choices, which can be considered are, using the physical assets available with government/government companies and large borrowing to kick start the economy.

In this crisis, innovative models of financing projects in the economy through a partnership with various stakeholders will help to reduce the funding through cash and printing more money. The government can collaborate with various stakeholders to kick start economic growth.

India has one of the good models of the PPP projects and Government / Government companies can capitalise on the strengths they have in the form of Land and Building in premier locations. PPP projects are mainly in infrastructure, long gestation and risk-sharing with the private sector. New models could focus on Resource Sharing, Knowledge Sharing and Risk sharing. After the COVID-19, sectors like Health care, Education and Community Development created opportunities for collaboration with the various stakeholders.

The government has already started leasing, operating roads; airports and ports. Now that the concept of InvITs and Reits have taken off in India, it should be possible to raise a lot of resources through these instruments.

AtmaNirbar Bharat

This has created a lot of interest among investors from various countries in the world. One of the main issues is the availability of land with supporting facilities for such projects.

Government and PSUs have a large tract of land and a large number of buildings across the cities. Few cities were developed because of large PSUs and many of these towns are still controlled by the large PSUs. Already an institution like NTPC has decided to allow other companies to operate within its premises. They can use the infrastructure already available on the campus and in the townships. A list could be made of all such facilities in India, within a period of one month. These facilities could be offered to MSMEs and those who are putting up projects under the ANB Programme. The land could be leased, rented or given as equity for developing joint venture projects. This will reduce the project risk for investors.

One of the issues in setting up a project in India is unexpected delays in commissioning the project due to obtaining all the licenses and permissions required. The government can create project vehicles for strategic Industries, obtain all the permissions and sell the fully compliant project vehicle with a good premium. This will be a valuable addition to allotting the bear land to the Project Developer.

Many of the PSUs are not doing well because they are in a business, where the business model has changed and the technology they use is outdated. This has resulted in the sickness of the PSUs. Most of the PSUs can be turned around overnight. The central and state PSUs have land and property in large cities, which have a huge value of their properties (Eg: BSNL, MTNL). By bringing in the best companies in the world in the sectors and creating a JV with them, the companies can be turned around.

In case, they are in industries which are not promising, capitalisation plan for the land and buildings could be formulated. Once the capitalisation is done, the government can ensure the debt repayment, which will reduce the NPAs of banks and  government can take the residual money in the form of dividends.

Public-Private Partnership

Within the public sector, the range of performance of companies is varying by a wide margin. But all of them have good recruitment and training process. They have people with good capabilities. What some of them lack is market orientation, good pricing strategies and good investor relationship practices in the case of companies which are doing well. The best practices from best companies in PSU’s, the private companies in the concerned sector can be gathered, assimilated and disseminated to PSUs. Since many of them are sick, a turn around plan can be developed for each sick PSU. Similarly, a forum can be created for sharing best practices of central PSUs with other PSUs/state PSUs. A leader in a sector can help the companies in the same sector to improve their policies, systems and procedures. In one of the large business groups in India, a similar concept was implemented in the year 2001 and after that many of the companies in the group have started doing very well.

Public Charity Partnership

Temples, mosques, churches and other leading religious institutions in India have  very large fund base and manage a large tract of land and buildings. They also have very high revenue, many times in hundreds of crores a year. They also manage Schools, Colleges, Townships,Hospitals and other social infrastructure. After the Pandemic, the importance of social infrastructure has become very important. Some of these institutions have the best facilities and best practices. They can be roped in to improve social infrastructure development in the areas where they are operating. A partnership model could be developed with the institutions.

Public Community Partnership

India has a very large programme for unemployed, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee programme. A very large budget is allotted for this programme, every year.

This year due to COVID-19, the additional amount has been allotted for this programme. There is a programme for capacity building of Panchayati raj institutions. The capacity building for Panchayats requires strengthening. They should be able to identify projects, which will be more beneficial than what is being done now. Focussing on projects, creating value for the village will go a big way in creating productive assets. The projects will be like building schools, dispensaries and community centres. The focus of this programme going forward could be on social infrastructure apart from physical infrastructure.

Public MFI Partnership

India is one of the largest recipients of loans from many of the MFIs. They continue to support India’s Initiatives and bullish on India’s long term Economic Growth. Now all of them encourage projects which meet ESG norms. This is in synch with our national objective of environmental friendly Economic growth. The focus for future engagement could be on Digital technology penetration, broadband penetration, Jobs creation and poverty alleviation apart from the conventional projects.

Public Foreign Financial Institution Partnership

India has become very attractive for long term funds around the world. Especially, after the stimulus by many of the developed countries in the world, the low yielding funds in the world have increased. Everybody is looking for investments, where the yields will be enough for them to meet their investment objectives. JICA, JBIC from Japan and many of the large Canadian Pension funds have invested large funds in India. Many of the large trading partners also have made good investments in India and they want to make more investments in India. Many of them, who are still not in India, not having a manufacturing base are waiting in the wings. After the new policies for manufacturing in India, there is an increased interest in India from multinationals around the world. Already many new manufacturing projects were announced by large multinationals. Many more want to come and set up shop in India.

COVID-19 and geopolitics have brought a great opportunity for India for fulfilling our ambition of taking the manufacturing GDP to 25 per cent. Through new models of the collaboration of Government with various stakeholders, India’s infrastructure development targets could be achieved and India could emerge as the destination of Global manufacturing.

R Kannan is an expert in finance and strategy with more than 35 years’ experience. He has been associated with TCS, Hinduja Group, ICICI Bank, among others.

 

https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/ppp-collaborative-models-to-stimulate-economic-growth