India - Union Budget F 2017

India Union Budget  F17 – 29^th Feb 2016

·         The budget has been made with an objective to give a boost to the Rural Economy, impetus to infrastructure investments , creation of more employment opportunities and giving a boost to the new ventures.

·         Close to Rs.1 trillion has been allocated for Rural development and Rs.2.2 trillion to give a push to infrastructure. A clear road map for number of KM’s of roads has been specified.

·         There is a stimulus for Real Estate and Infrastructure through making the tax aspects relating to REIT’s and INVIT’s more investor friendly. There is also an incentive for those who are buying houses valued at less than Rs.50 L and avail a loan of less than Rs.35 L. The income earned from Affordable housing projects has been made 100% exempt from tax.

·         The above measures are likely to increase the private consumption levels, create demand for infrastructure driven industries.

·         There is an attempt to reduce the incentives given for various investment schemes by individuals less attractive. Especially, the schemes relating to superannuation , Provident fund and investment in equity. Considering that out of total savings in India, less than 10% is invested in financial instruments, this move could reduce the share of financial instruments further in the investments made from savings.

·         There is a VDS scheme announced and schemes for settlement of Income tax dispute cases and they had factored in more than Rs.25,000 cr of additional tax from these schemes.

·         Considering the above measures and the implementation of 7^th Pay commission will keep the inflation above 5 – 6% levels going forward.

·         The Revised Estimate (RE) for Total receipts is Rs.17.85 trn, which was 0.45% higher than the Budgeted Estiamtes(BE) and it was higher than the previous year by 7.32%. The projection for F 17 is Rs.19.78 trn, a rise of 10.8% over the RE for F 16.

·         The RE for Gross tax revenue for F 16 was at Rs.14.59 trn, higher than the budget by 0.7% and 17.25% higher than the previous year. Considering that Banks and Corporates did not show such an high growth rate, the contribution to growth in tax has come from taxes on petroleum products and increase in Service tax. The projection for F 17 is Rs.16.30 trn, a growth rate of 11.7%. This will result in higher inflation.

·         After the share with the states, the net tax revenues in F 16 was at Rs.9.47 cr , only 3% higher than the budget. It was higher than the previous year by 4.86%. The projection for F 17 is 11.25% . In F 16, the tax shared with the States rose by 49.9% and it is likely to rise by 12.67% at Rs.5.57 trn.

·          Due to poor performance of corporates, the corporate taxes were lower than the budgeted level by 3.75% at Rs.4.53 trn. The assumption is that , it will rise by 9% to Rs.4.93 trn in F 17. Considering the very poor performance of corporates in F 16, if many corporates would be able to turn around the performance, the growth could be even higher at 12 – 15% over the previous year’s level.

·         Taxes on income was at Rs.2.99 trn, 8.7% lower than the budgeted levels in F16. They had assumed an increase of Rs.53,000 cr over the previous year, a growth of 18.1% in F 17. This has assumed a sharp rise , after factoring in the expected inflow on account of VDS and settlement of pending cases.

·         In F 15 , there was a collection of Rs.1086 cr of wealth tax. In F 16 there was no number shown and in F 17 it has been assumed to be nil. Considering the poor compliance on this count, they could consider scrapping the concept of Wealth tax. The administration cost of this tax would be higher than the expected collections under this account.

·         In Customs, the revenue was higher than the budget by 0.56% at Rs.2.10 trn and higher than the previous year 11.4%. Considering that the value of imports were lower than last year, despite the imported value of petroleum products dropped, the customs duties were maintained at the previous years’ levels, which was a positive in revenue generation. The growth projected for F 17 is only 9.8%, lower than the growth witnessed in F 16.

·         On Excise, they were planning to collect only Rs.2.29 trn. But they had collected Rs.2.84 trn, 23.6% higher than the budgeted level and 49.6% higher than the previous year. Whatever savings on import of petroleum products was protected through higher Excise duties on the petroleum products. In F 17, they expect Rs.3.18 trn, a rise of 12.2% increase over F 16.

·         Service tax collection was higher than the budget by 0.11% at Rs.2.1 trn. It was higher than the previous year by 25%. The projection for F 17 is Rs.2.31 trn, 10% higher than the previous year.

·         Interest receipts by the government was lower than the previous year at Rs.2.78% at Rs.23,804 in F 16 and it is likely to rise to Rs.29,620 cr , a rise of 28% over the previous year. Here the Government must have assumed issue of Bonus Debentures by PSU’s to share holders and receipt of Interest on such debentures.

·         In F 16 , they had assumed receipt of dividend of Rs. 1 trn and it was higher at Rs.1.18 trn. This was higher than the budget by 17.51% and higher than the F 15 by 31.7%. In F 17 the assumption is that Rs.1.24 trn, a rise of 4.66% over F 16.

·         Other non tax revenues. This includes Sale of air waves and disinvestments. The plan for F 16 was Rs.0.94 trn and the actual was Rs.1.12 trn, 19.6% higher than the budget and 38.99% higher than the previous year. The budget for F 17 is Rs.1.65 trn, Rs.53,000 cr higher than the previous year, 46.4% higher than the previous year.

·         They had assumed Miscellaneous capital receipts of Rs.56,500 cr, a rise of 123% over the F 16 level.

·         The strategy for  Market loans is to keep this at previous year’s levels. In F 16, it was lower than  F 15 by 2.75%. In F 17, it is assumed to be even lower by 3.5% at Rs.4.25 trn.

·         Short term borrowings in F 16 was higher than F 15 by 648 % at Rs.68,665 cr. It was higher than the budget also by 128.40%. The plan for F 17 is a reduction of 75% and the plan is to mobilise Rs.16,649 cr . Hence, the Government will not compete in short term funds market and the liquidity for others in the short term market should improve.

·         The amount raised through small savings in F 16 was higher than F 15 by 65.6% and budget by 138.39% at Rs.53,418 cr. There is a plan to reduce this to Rs.22108 cr , 58.6% lower than F 16.

·         Other Capital receipts in F 16 was negative at Rs.28,000 cr . In F 17 , it is likely to be higher by Rs.53,000 cr at Rs.25,677 cr.

·         In the expense category, Interest payments are likely to rise by 11.3% to Rs.4.92 trn.

·         Defence services will rise by 13.63% to Rs.1.43 trn.

·         Subsidies in F 16 was marginally than the previous year at Rs.2.58 trn. There is an assumption of a marginal reduction and this is expected at Rs.2.50 trn in F  17. They do not expect a big benefit from DBT and direct transfer scheme as the reduction is not substantial.

·         Pension payments rose by 2.26% in F 16 and it is expected to increase by 28.87% in F 17 and it is expected to be Rs. 1.23 trn, Rs.27,000 cr higher than the previous year.

Despite , the Economic growth coming below 8% , the collection by the government was very robust in F 16 and the projections for F 17 also assumes, significant improvement in revenue from many of the revenue sources.

In a crisis situation like this, the role of government in kick starting the higher economic growth is very critical. Some of the issues which are attracting the attention of investors are the Non Performing Assets in the Banking System and the poor performance of many PSU’s.

The PSU’s and PSB’s have hidden assets in terms of real estate assets and Capitalising them would help to bolster the balance sheets of the PSU’s and PSB’s.

Globally, the banking system is in bad shape and if they have to declare their real NPA’s, then the banking system will collapse. In a growing Economy like ours, there is a good scope for our banking system to recover. If they have to aggressively provide for NPA’s within a short period, then the health of banking system will deteriorate within a short period and the rating of the entities will go down thereby making the capital raising a difficult exercise. Hence we can look at experience of China, which at one time had NPA’s of more than 45% and the experience of other countries where NPA’s were very high. A window of 5 years could be given to provide for NPA’s.

Considering the various initiatives by the Government , it should be possible to achieve the desired growth levels and if there is any slippage in collection on account of any extra ordinary sources of income as assumed , it could put strain on the Fiscal deficit. Hence it is essential to prepare special action plans to generate revenue at regular intervals under the Other income categories.  Under the present assumptions, the deficit will be down to 3.5% , which would help to achieve a good country rating and enable the mobilisation of funds from foreign sources.

Like in F 16, For the next one year, the commodity prices are likely to be soft and this should facilitate the achievement of various objectives of the Budget for F17.

Hidden Strengths of Indian Economy

Hidden Strengths of  India – 7^th Feb 2016

R.Kannan

India continues to do well in the Global Economy despite there is a big scope for reforms in the various sectors of the Economy. The proposed reforms are work in progress  Once they are implemented India will continue to grow at higher than the present levels.

India has many hidden strengths which are not reflected in the reports , statistics and surveys carried out by experts. By capitalising the strengths, India would be able to realise its full potential of Economic growth.

1. Largest number of entrepreneurs in the world. India has the largest number of entrepreneurs in the world. Most of these entrepreneurs are in the services sectors , especially , trading. Tier 2, 3, 4 cities and villages have entrepreneurs in the areas of trade and related activities. There are more than 20 million entrepreneurs in India and assuming an average house hold size of 5, 100 million people depend on these activities in India.
2. Largest number of small start ups in the world. Traditionally, in India, lot of new start ups, especially in Trading are being created by small entrepreneurs. This is mainly in the areas of retailing and trade. The phenomenon is witnessed not only in Urban areas but also in rural areas.
3. It is very easy to start a business in India, where only the local licenses are required. The businesses which require license from  local body is easy to start. It does not require licenses from District , State and Central government levels.
4. Profitable businesses at high interest rates.  In India, interest rates vary from 0% to 4000% p.a . The small vendors borrow funds at 10% day and they generate 30% returns per day. Despite the rates of interest are very high, the loans are still affordable. Many of the small businesses generate very high margins and they have the best asset and working capital turnover.
5. Availability of funding from various sources. Since the savings rate is very high, there are many sources from which funding for business could be raised. Starting from friends to small money lenders , funding is available from Micro Finance Institutions,  State funding agencies, central government agencies, banks, financial institutions, corporates, Primary market, secondary market , Private equity, FDI, FII’, foreign Hedge Funds and provident funds are available. 
6. High generation of employment in small scale sector. Most of the employees in India are in the unorganised sectors and especially in small scale. Lot of new jobs are being created in the small scale. After the advent of mobile phones and their penetration in the rural areas , lot of employment is generated in the related fields even in rural areas.
7. Very high savings rate. India has a very high savings rate of 30%. This is equivalent to $ 600 bn a year. In a five years, the savings generated will be equivalent to $ 3 trillion. This is three times the requirement of investments required for investment in Infrastructure. If attractive financial instruments are created , it would be possible to meet funding for the infrastructure investment within India.
8. High money multiplier. Since most of the transactions in India are carried out by Cash, the money multiplier is much higher than the statistics on the Indian economy. Since the multiplier is higher, this helps to generate value addition at different levels in the Economy.
9. Very high assets holdings by Government, Government agencies, PSU’s,Banks , Corporates, Religious bodies, NGO’s and Individuals. There are big land holdings, gold holdings in the economy and if the market value of these assets are valued , the debt equity ratio for the above would be much lower than the Economic Statistics. There is a need to capitalise hidden assets by various entities in the economy.

Overnight, the PSU’s can be turned around. Since they hold land in Prime areas. Public Sector Banks hold lots of real estate assets and the market value of investments by LIC is much higher than the cost of investments. Gold is held by many religious institutions and Individuals. Most of the assets are in illiquid form and strategies have to be developed for making them liquid and performing.

10. Self supporting local communities.  Since India is very large and dominance of rural areas, many rural communities are still immune to what is happening globally and they can sustain their performance irrespective of the global economic developments . The small economies can be protected from high volatility.
11. Higher competition between states. Now each state government behaves like an entrepreneur and there are initiatives in each state to attract more investments and each state has set up a target to grow the economy at a faster rate than the Indian economic growth. The initiatives in three to four states alone can lead to higher economic growth levels in India , when the programmes are implemented .
12. The real GDP. Since there is a big parallel economy  in India, the real GDP is much higher than the GDP reported . Most of the risk funding, where returns are not certain, comes from funding sources from Parallel Economy. Parallel economy is also helping to sustain the higher level of economic activities in India.
13. Indian Diaspora. Their asset holdings in other parts of the world are very high. Now, many of the economies in the Globe are becoming unattractive, many of them are looking at the investment in opportunities in India. As and when , the conditions become favourable for their investment, more funds would come to India from Diaspora.
14. India’s consumers. In India, as per the Income classification, we have the maximum number of customer segments in India. There is a constant movement of consumers moving from lower category to next higher category. This creates demand for all types of goods. For e.g., there is a demand for the cheapest car to the costliest car in the world. 
15. Attractiveness of Investment. The reports released by various agencies in the world does not reflect the reality. The ranking is given on small data of variables and it does not represent the reality. The situation is not as bad as reported. As per the survey done by World Economic Forum this year, India ranks top amongst all the countries in the world for the attractiveness of investments.

India has all the strengths, as outlined above and we have to develop strategies and action plans to capitalise the hidden potential. The action plans developed should not disturb the existing eco system which is favouring creation of entrepreneurs. The action plans should add to the present strengths. In 1700’s and before, India was one of the leading economies in the world contribution to a significant portion of Global GDP. This will add 2% to our GDP ,India can regain its status of the leading country in the world.      

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