Trade Wars could be a boon for India

Trade Wars could be a boon for India

written by R Kannan December 15, 2018 08:22 AM

The Article appeared in the Free Press Journal Mumbai

The trade war between US and China has created  a turbulence in the global affairs  and  the  trade between nations will undergo a change if the issues between two nations are not resolved soon. In the month of November, US had the highest trade deficit with China. The two countries so far imposed tariffs on $ 360 bn of merchandise trade between them.

US-China trade war will have an adverse effect on many economies which are depending on trade and it will distort the trade flows between countries. The war is likely to push the production to more expensive locations which will lead to price rise and reduced efficiency. Global trade growth  will take a beating, existing global supply chains will be disrupted and investor confidence will dampen. There are two opposite views on What US will do once  the year 2019 dawns. It will go ahead with the proposals and start implementing them. Other view is that, once we come closer to 2019, US could change its stand and moderate the proposals.

While, many countries will be affected by the Global trade war, few countries, will also be winners in this scenario. US and China will explore options for suppliers from other countries to fulfil their demand. They will develop alternate markets for their products and seek new sources to meet their local demand.

The countries which are likely to benefit include, Mexico (auto exports to US will increase), Europe (can export more agricultural produce to China) and many of the Asian countries , especially ,India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Cambodia, Myanmar can explore the opportunities to increase their exports.

India can focus on increasing the exports from ICT, Automotive, Apparel and Readymade sectors. ICT is one sector, where US government has increased the tariff for imports from China. This is the largest category of imports from China and it amounted to $ 150 bn a year. This will help to hamper the China initiative of Made in China 2025 , which is focussed on increasing the growth of the hi tech sectors in China. India witnessed a phenomenal growth in mobile penetration and other related ICT sectors in the last few years. India had come out with a policy of Hardware manufacturing and few large players, especially in mobile phones had announced their plans for big investment in this sector. India has a very good eco system for hardware development and this could be a good opportunity for India to increase the growth of hardware Industry. The initiatives in India like Make in India, Industry 4.0, will make India attractive for foreign companies to make the investments here.

Automotives. China exported finished vehicles of US $ 7.2 bn. But exports of Auto components from China was at $ 31 bn in 2017. US was the main destination for Auto component exports from China.  This is likely to affect the Chinese exporters. China Imported Finished  Vehicle exports to the tune of US $ 10.3 bn. But most of the brands exported to China, have their local presence in China. Auto components is a very big opportunity. In the last few years, India has become very competitive in Auto sector and emerged as the most preferred location for manufacturing small cars in the world. Further, the Eco system for Auto sector in India is well developed. All the players in the market invest on innovation , R&D and produce global quality vehicles today. Further, the FDI regulations for this sector are very liberal. Indian Auto and Auto component manufacturers can capitalise on this emerging opportunity.

Apparel and readymade Garments. China is the leading producer today and they exported $ 38.7 bn to US in 2017. In 2016, China  had 36.2% of global textile exports and 34.5% of global clothing exports.  The new tariffs by US government , will create significant opportunities for other countries who are leading exporters in the world.  Bangladesh and Vietnam rank second and third in world in exports. But India has the raw material , cotton and  a vibrant Industry. At present, high quality yarns from other countries are not allowed to be imported into India. If India relaxes , this norm, India can move higher up in the value chain and aspire to become the second largest exporter in the world.

India can fill the void of exports from US to China. This will be mainly in the area of agriculture and we can grow crops which are suited to Chinas’ requirements and ensure China continues to buy cotton from us  and start importing other agricultural produce. This will also help in achieving the objective of doubling farmers income and increasing the productivity in agriculture. India has a very huge trade deficit with China. By promoting Agri Exports, the trade deficit with China could be reduced.

By focussing on these sectors, India would be able to significantly increase its exports and it will also aid in  achieving the export targets set by the Government and reduce the trade deficit. The more investment friendly / export friendly policies could be drawn up in these sectors , keeping the export markets as the focus. This is the right time for India to accelerate the development of these sectors.

R Kannan is Head, Corporate Performance Management, Hinduja Group. The views are personal.

Currency Wars

Currency wars – Will spoil the Party

A country’s Currency strength determines its competitiveness in the global trade. Strength of a currency in determined by Fiscal deficit, Trade deficit, Forex reserves and capital flows in an economy.

The economies where the foreign reserves are very high,  trade surplus is there and positive  capital inflows in the economy, currencies have a tendency to appreciate. The countries where there is high trade deficit, negative capital flows, negative current account are likely to witness depreciation in currency. Depending on the situation, countries resort to manipulation of currency by either buying or selling dollars. Buying dollars lead to appreciation of currency and selling dollars lead to depreciation of currency. Extent of buying , Selling determines the level of appreciation / depreciation.

Currencies which are weak, provides the cost competitive advantage to nations in gaining share in global trade. China gained lot of advantage in the global trade by keeping its currency weak for long, supported by artificial depression of Cost of production in the country. This helped China to become the leader in manufacturing in the world. After the pressures from US and others, China allowed the appreciation of currency .

The advent of Trade war now is posing a big challenge to nations across the world. Trade war will lead to slow growth in global trade and many of the nations which mainly depend on trade will be affected in a big way. To counter the trade war, Countries will adopt  the strategy of weakening their  currency.

This year, China’s remnibi already weakened. After a fall in 2016,  renminbi witnessed appreciation  in the second half of 2017. It lost momentum in early 2018 due to slowing economic growth and the escalating trade dispute with the US. The renminbi depreciated by 3.2% against the US currency in June alone, its worst-ever monthly performance. This will lead to exchange-rate volatility . China will continue to allow the depreciation of its currency if the trade wars continue.

A similar trend was witnessed by many of the emerging economies where they saw their currency depreciating against the dollar. Currency depreciation leads to inflation since the imported commodities cost more. If trade wars continue, even, other large exporting countries will start depreciating their currency. This will lead to currency wars.

When the countries want their currency to remain stable to ensure a stable economy, they resort to  buying dollars, which results in appreciation of currencies. This will help in making the 

economy stable and helps importers .

When countries want to increase the competitiveness of products, central banks sell dollars in large quantities, which leads to depreciation of the local currency. When a commodity exporter, a manufactured product exporter or a service exporter , benefit from this move, Since their sales is dollars or equivalent and when the proceeds are realised in India, they will be able to make good profit. 

Since April the US dollar has rallied and market expects Fed will accelerate the pace of monetary tightening and expects US interest rates to go up ,which will make reverse flow of capital from the Emerging economies.

In line with the emerging trends, Indian currency also witnessed a fall . Rupee depreciated by 7%  from Rs 64.50 to a dollar on June 23 to Rs 69.05 on 24 July, a very sharp depreciation. India has a huge current account deficit and fiscal deficit. Indian Economic growth was supported by capital inflows in the last few years , when the interest rates in global markets and US were very low. Now that US has started increasing the interest rates, some of the capital which flowed to Indian Economy will go back. This will put a pressure on rupee.

 Many experts believe that Indian Rupee will not depreciate beyond Rs.70, since RBI intervenes at regular intervals to keep the rupee stable, which will ensure the stability of the overall economy. There are predictions that it could touch Rs.72 also if oil prices rise further and our trade deficit continues to  show a rising trend.

If the trade wars continue, it will be a challenge for India to keep the export competitiveness high . Allowing rupee to depreciate , will lead to inflation. In the last three , four years, inflation was contained. Now that we are in the election year, the currency has to be kept stable. It will be a challenge for Policy makers in the area of currency management and Trade management. We have to be ready with solutions for each possible scenario , so that inflation is contained, our economic stability is maintained, our exports are competitive.    

Increased protection to Home Buyers

My Article Published in Financial Express on 1st June

Increased protection to home buyers

The Indian real estate industry is fragmented, with no single construction firm having a leading position.

By: FE Bureau | Updated: June 1, 2018 4:26 AM

he industry scenario is that, in large cities, the inventory of houses to be sold will last for 3-4 years.

R Kannan

The Indian real estate industry is fragmented, with no single construction firm having a leading position. At the same time, given the demographic profile of India, the number of first-time home buyers is on a rise. According to a recent RBI data, bank credit to new home buyers increased by 13.3% to Rs 9,74,600 crore as on March 31, 2018, compared to Rs 8,60,100 crore in the same period last year. Apart from residential construction in large cities, even people living in towns/rural areas have started building homes for themselves. The aspirations of crores to have a home were fulfilled by the entry of new players and availability of funding from banks, housing finance companies, NBFCs and private equity firms, and we saw a boom in the industry. Traditionally, 50% of property cost is financed by home buyers through own funds and the balance is through bank finance and other borrowed funds. In most of these cases, half the price of a property had to be paid in cash. Further, real estate development was taking place in unauthorised areas and a few fly-by-night operators capitalised the boom to cheat home buyers.

Introduction of RERA and demonetisation created turbulence in the industry. RERA has brought many provisions to protect buyers’ interest. Companies have to create an escrow account and 70% of the collections from home buyers have to be deposited into this account. Withdrawing money from these accounts have a lot of restrictions. Companies have to be transparent and publish all the details including approval from authorities and their construction plans.

These provisions from RERA necessitated the formalisation of the industry and adoption of best corporate governance practices by real estate firms. This is likely to lead to consolidation of businesses and only a few large players will be able to sustain their business. Small players may become subcontractors to these large players. The regulations have constrained the availability of finance from various sources. RERA implementation is in the take-off stage and will take 3-4 years to attain maturity.

The industry scenario is that, in large cities, the inventory of houses to be sold will last for 3-4 years. Many real estate firms are finding it difficult to navigate through new regulations and are looking for funds to finish pending projects. The firms were initially funded by banks, NBFCs and private equity firms, but that funding has almost dried up. In this context, home buyers are likely to be treated as financial debtors as per Insolvency Code.

This provides them with double protection from RERA and IBC. Insolvency Code implementation is also in the take-off stage and the speed of resolutions is not as per expected time-lines. This is likely to be so, considering that this is a new legislation.

Financial institutions will be hesitant to fund real estate projects directly and it will result in home buyers taking loans from these institutions and paying advance to developers. The industry has become hyper-competitive and it takes a long time for developers to market all the flats they have and mobilise resources to complete the projects. Further, unlike in the case of banks, individual home buyers do not have the knowledge or expertise to pursue debt recovery from financial services firms.

If a project under resolution is sold to other developers and that project continues, it will be a win-win situation for all—home buyers will be able to recover the amount. In case the project goes for liquidation, all creditors including home buyers will only be able to recover a part of the amount.

Considering the current state of the industry and the financial condition of builders, the legislation for protection of customers should take care of continuing projects and protect the interests of all the stakeholders to ensure continued flow of funds to good developers. A detailed analysis of the two legislations from the perspective of each stakeholder has to be carried out, bringing out the pros and cons for each stakeholder group and the legislation which could be finalised after taking into consideration all the implementation issues.

The writer is Head, Corporate Performance Monitoring & Research, Hinduja Group

NPA in Banks - India

NPA resolution in India –  The way forward

The image of the Indian Economy has taken a beating in the recent past after  developments in the area of Bank Management, Bank Governance and NPA management. There is news, every day ,about new developments in the NPA management. The regular inflow of news on NPA has created an impression that our banking system is in a very bad shape.

The situation is not alarming, as it is made out to be. India has got one of the highest reserve requirements in the world and banks have to invest significant part of their deposits in the Government and safe securities.

The entire amount reported as NPA, is not a total loss for the banks. If diligent and well thought out strategies are adopted, then , it would be possible to recover more than 60% of the NPAs.  All the Public Sector Banks in India have many undervalued assets in the form of Real estate in Prime locations in India.

Further, the investments they have in Shares of public listed companies , will have a much higher market value than the value reported in Books. Many of these banks, have subsidiaries engaged in the business of  Insurance, Housing Finance , Securities Management ,etc. The value of these investments would be much higher than what is reported in the books of accounts.

Indian Economy is still very strong growing at more than 7% p.a . The savings rate of 30% alone is $ 750 bn , a very large amount considering the banking system. Further , the banking system has only about 12% of the total assets of the economy. In all these years, about 88% of savings was invested in immovable assets including gold, real estate and others. The value of these assets are very high. Auto sector, which contributes to 10% of the manufacturing in India, continues to grow at more than 10% and many sectors in India are still growing at more than 10% p.a , one of the highest in the world.

Considering all these factors, the investors need not press the panic button and say , all that has come to an end. In fact, this is the right opportunity for genuine investors to draw plans for aggressive growth of their businesses.

Many new initiatives were taken by the government in the recent past to resolve the NPA issue. The recent decision to allow companies referred to NPA resolution to even consider the option of selling the company as a going concern will go a long way in expediting the process.  The following further options could be considered apart from using the present / legal frame work to resolve the NPA issues.

Even, this week, government has allowed banks to set off the losses on account of treasury operations of banks over four quarters instead of a single quarter. The implementation of Ind – AS has been postponed. In cases, where the resolution process has started, banks have to provide only 50% of the value for NPA for accounting purpose.

For Industries /Companies affected by Policy issues. Government can set up a working group for each Industry to prepare action plans to make the industry competitive again. The action plans could address ,  change in the legislation; policy ; licensing; pricing and competition issues. The groups set up could come up with suggestions within a month and the action plans could be implemented within a time frame of three months. Wherever legal provisions have to be changed, ordinance could be passed.

1. In the case, where, the companies have mismatch of cash flows and for technical purposes, they are reported as NPAs, the provisions could be reviewed and they could be amended to revise the accounting norms. If a unit is able to prove that it would be possible to repay the instalment within six months of the due date, if it is a NPA, as per technical approach, the account could be excluded from addition to NPAs.
2.  The primary objective of NPA resolution process is to recover NPAs. As and when the units are referred to authority, in many cases, if there is a company ready to settle the full amount, the recovery could be made and the resolution process could be terminated. Detailed due diligence process could be done away with.
3. In cases, where , the promoters have the ability to repay and they have enough assets to repay, with the help of investigation and the compliance agencies, through a discussion with the promoter resolve and if the process does not work, then, the legal course of action could be pursued. Indians by nature, will be very conscious about the reputation in the society and when they are convinced by conciliatory approach to settle issues, many of them will come forward.
4. In every sector, even in sectors which are not doing well, there are best companies with good operating and financial performance. In cases, where the sickness is related to management issues, the companies could be taken over by Banks and the management contract could be given to these leading companies to improve the performance with a profit sharing approach. In these cases, the sick companies would be able to derive synergies from the best practice and economies of scale.
5. So far , the approach to resolution was focussed mainly on legal and financial aspects. A focus on strategic management to resolve the issues, change management would help in developing a competitive operation going forward.
6. Apart from addressing the distressed assets, Public sector banks have large real estate assets. Especially, the residences could be sold to generate cash. Many of the branches of PSUs have large space. Considering the technological developments, ideally, they would be requiring only 25 – 30% of the space , they occupy. The branches could be redesigned and the space could be optimally utilised. The extra space could be used to sell , other financial products, consumer loans with Durables and Automobiles, which can generate , lot of fee income. Banks can also sell other assets which are not core to the banking operations.
7. RBI. There has to be a continuous monitoring required. All the branches should send their weekly NPA reports to the Corporate office of Banks. Every bank, should send a consolidated report of NPAs to RBI , every month. In RBI, bank – wise, company – wise / Customer – wise / NPA details could be consolidated. Considering the advancements in Technology , it should not be very difficult to prepare these reports.
8. In RBI, A senior level officer , could be in charge of NPA monitoring and well staffed department to Monitor NPA could be set up in RBI. The consolidated reports generated by RBI could be shared with the Banks, Ministry of Finance,  Ministry of Corporate Affairs and SEBI. Based on the reports, from time to time, guidance could be sent to the banks. At a Bank level, a GM level person could be in charge of NPA monitoring. This department will be different from Special asset Resolution Department. The main role of the department is to identify and report NPA at regular intervals.
9. Legal process. In India, any procedure, which has to undergo legal process always takes time. In the light of this, the scope for resolving the NPA issue without legal process could be looked at as the first option. This will save time, money and uncertainty in the result of the process.

In addition to the present action plans by Government / RBI, implementation of some of the above action plans would help to reduce the NPA level and bring back the Banking system to black again. To achieve, there has to be a very good coordination between Government Stakeholders , all the related Regulators and  the banks.

( This is the opinion of the Author and not the Company he is working for ).

3rd Millennium – Opportunities, Issues and Challenges

3^rd Millennium – Opportunities, Issues and Challenges

R.Kannan , Hinduja Group

International Research Conference conducted by Indian Accounting Association, University of Mumbai and Chadrabhan  Sharma College on 7^th April 2018 .

Hon’ble Member of Parliament, Shri Dr. Kirit Somaiyaji, Prof.Shiware, Prof Chitra Natarajan, Prof. Ashok Joshi,  Prof. Madhu Nair, Prof Pratima Singh, Members of Indian Accounting Association, Faculty  Members and Researchers from all over the world , Ladies and Gentlemen, Good morning to all of you.

I am very happy to be part of the 4^th International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Transition and the Transformation in 3^rd millennium.  I would like to thank Prof.Shiware and Prof.Chitra for inviting me to deliver the key note address.

I am happy to know that in this conference, research papers relating to:

i)                    Strategic Marketing and Planning

ii)                   Business Ethics

iii)                 CSR

iv)                 Global Management

v)                  HRM

vi)                 Digital Strategies

vii)               Innovation

viii)              Empowering Women

ix)                 Telecommunication, etc

Will be presented. It is very heartening to note that more than 400 research papers were received from various parts of the world and am happy to see , many dignitaries have come from abroad to attend this conference.

Am sure with these wide variety of subjects and perspectives, the participants including me will benefit a lot from the proceedings. The topic today is of utmost relevance in the context of continued disruptions and uncertainty in the Economy.

The advancements in the first 17 years of the 3rd  millennium are breath taking.  We are living in an age where continued disruption, uncertainty, volatility, complexity and ambiguity are part of our daily life. The advancement in recent past is much larger than the advancement witnessed in the earlier few thousand years in the past.

Few hundred years ago China and India were the leading economics in the world. According to some sources, both countries had more than 50% of the world’s GDP.

Later when Britain started expanding its operations globally, it became the leading economy in the world. Technology revolution catapulted USA to the leading position in the world. Afterwards, we witnessed the rise of Europe, Russia, Japan and South Korea.

From 1980 onwards, China started growing fast and India started reporting higher growth after liberalisation. Then we started hearing Acronyms like BRICS, MENA, CIVET, etc. In 1980 , China and India were of the same size  .  The breath taking reforms undertaken by China and the fast growth it was able to sustain for many years have made China , a global power today.

US and Europe and countries like Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong were contributing to the growth a few years ago. Even today, because of its large size, US contribution to the Incremental economic growth in the world is substantial. Since the growth potential in these countries have become less, the countries like China, India, Indonesia, Middle East and Arica have started growing fast.

According to predictions for 2050 by various experts, China will be the leading economy with a GDP of about $ 50 trillion, followed by US at $ 36 to 40 trn and India $ 27 to 30 trn. Indonesia will be the fourth largest economy in the world.

In the next 2/3 years, India will become the country with the maximum population in the world. It has the largest number of youth  in the world. The largest number of entrepreneurs in the world are living in India. We create  the maximum number of entrepreneurs in a year  in the world.

As per the forecast by all the leading financial institutions and Economists through out world, India will continue to grow at a rate of more than 7% p.a. for many more years. The high growth will create many opportunities for people from across the society. The path to the growth is paved with lot of challenges.

Indian society had gone through a fast transformation in the last few years. From total dependence on Agriculture and rural areas, the growth has shifted to services, manufacturing and cities. Despite, the level of urbanisation is only at 32%, what we find today is that lot of developments taking place in villages also. They are being provided with electricity, water, road connectivity, media and digital connectivity. The penetration of mobile phones in rural areas is taking information to every nook and corner of the country. The concept of joint family is giving way to nuclear families. In a family, many go to work, resulting in multiple income and high earning capacity. People have started spending money and India has become one of the high consumption economies in the world today.

The entry of e-commerce players has increased the consumption level.  Unlike in the past, today people spend lot of money on Education, Health , Leisure, Entertainment and Travel.

In an Economic Growth model, the growth of an economy is initially dominated by Agriculture and then manufacturing picks up. Finally, the services takes the dominant position. In the case of India, even without creating a big manufacturing base, the initial fast growth was supported by services. As the services grew, it gained its share from Agriculture in proportion to the lost share of  Agriculture. Whereas the share of industry and manufacturing remained at the same level for many years.

The fast growth in services was mainly supported by Trade. India has got one of the largest and deepest Retail systems in the world. There are six levels of trade before it reaches the final customer. At the retail level itself there are more than 15 million establishments. If we take the other six levels, it adds up to a lot in terms of number of entrepreneurs. This has created lot of business and entrepreneurial opportunities in India. Most of the jobs in India are created in the unorgainsed sector and too in the area of trade. At the global level, India becoming the leading country in the world for IT outsourcing , has created many businesses in the area of services. An entire eco system of businesses has been created around IT and ITES.

Whereas China’s growth strategy was anchored on manufacturing. With the low cost of all factors of production, China was able to become the manufacturing hub for the world. Now China wants to build its service sector and aspires to compete with India , in services.

If India has to grow at more than 7% p.a and the fast growth has to be sustained, manufacturing has to be developed. The share of manufacturing in our economy is only 16% and the Government has formulated a programme“Make in India” to increase the share of manufacturing share to 25% of GDP.  25 thrust sectors have been identified for increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP.

To achieve this objective lot of skills are required. When there is availability of lot of people for work, there  is also a big demand for specific skills to develop industries. Realising this need, Government has created a Skill development programme to fill the gaps in the skills required. Skill development programmes are in place at the National, Regional, Local levels and the target is to train 500mn people in the next few years  in more than  43 areas.

To develop manufacturing, a conducive eco system needs to be developed. To address this issue ,National level Industrial corridors spanning  across many  states and industrial corridors  within the  states were identified and in the process of implementation. These initiatives will help to develop the industrial clusters and infrastructure required for industrial development. This  will go a long way in accelerating the growth of manufacturing and  the economy.

Countries across the world have recognised the importance of fast economic growth. The ruling parties/rulers across the world , irrespective of the form of government ,  drawn up ambitious plans for the growth of their economies. They conduct road shows to attract investments into their countries.

Political climate across the world is becoming business friendly and the culture has changed. Earlier , investors used to visit the government offices to obtain permits. Now, the Government authorities , visit , various countries in the world and inviting the investors to invest.

In India every state Government has a plan to grow fast and each state conducts Road Shows/Investment meets to attract investments in the state. This will go a long way in increasing the competitiveness of states and formulation of  robust economic growth strategies.

Digitisation and Technology. The latest development in technology has created a lot of opportunities for growth but at the same time  has destroyed several industries. The fast penetration of mobile technology has advanced the social/financial inclusion and today even a person living in a rural area can use a smart phone to read and receive a high quality content which is of global standard. The advancements in AI, IOT, VR and block chain are going to improve the productivity several times.

At the same time, faster adoption of these technologies will destroy many jobs. Further , misuse of these technologies is threatening the privacy of individuals. The exploitation and profiteering is also a big threat. Cyber security has become one of the major areas of concern. The adoption of these technologies should be handled with great care and measured approach to adopting these technologies will ensure a balanced Economic Growth .

To ensure a balanced development of any industry and an economy, regulation and regulatory agencies play a major role. As the world becomes more and more complex, new regulations have to be formulated and new regulatory authorities have to be created. The time  taken and procedures to be adopted to adhere to regulations results in significant costs for an enterprise. Regulatory costs have become one of the major costs of doing business today.

The adoption of new technologies / manufacturing techniques has resulted in degradation of the environment. Higher level of manufacturing will result in higher pollution. Now that , we have set a higher target for manufacturing, there is always a dilemma, which one should be given precedence over the other.

The opportunities before us are accompanied by several challenges. Considering India has a large population, all our future economic strategies should be based on use of the available manpower. Considering the large number of work force, even a small improvement in productivity in India will lead to big gain. This is the moment for India. We have very good economic development programmes in India. By formulating workable implementation plans and effective implementation, India can regain the global leadership in the third millennium. To realise this dream, all the stake holders in the society should work together and Make India  a leading force in the world.

Thank you.

FDI in India

FDI – Astute Conduit for Trade Integration and Sustainable development – 2nd March

Keynote Speech Delivered in the International Conference on FDI Held by Department of International Business, Alagappa University.

R.Kannan, Hinduja Group

Shri. Prof. Subbiah, the Honble Vice Chancellor of the Alagappa  University, Shri.Karunakaran, Secretary to Government of Tamil Nadu, Dr. Narayana Murthy, Member of the Syndicate, Prof. Guru Mallesh Prabhu, Registrar of the University, Prof. Manickavasagam, Dean , Faculty of Management, Prof. UthayaSuryan, Prof.Muthuswamy, Ladies and Gentlemen, Good morning to all of you.

Indian Economy plays a major role in the growth of the world Economy today. Investors across the world are interested in investing in India . In the last four years, the FDI received by India crossed $ 200 bn. The interest of international investors in India is increasing and in Conferences organised by various states, Foreign Investors are committing billions and billions Dollars of investments in the states.

In this context, Department of International Business , Alagappa University is conducting an international conference on FDI, Trade Integration and Sustainable Development. In these two days, apart from the Speakers from Other countries, Experts from India are also participating. Several paper presentations were scheduled during this conference.

I am happy to be part of the programme and look forward to learn new concepts and perspectives on FDI . Am sure , all the participants will benefit a lot from the proceedings.

I would like to Congratulate Department of International Business, Algapppa University in Choosing this important Subject for the Conference and  wish the Seminar a great Success.

Global Economy

Global growth outlook is benign and augurs well for India, particularly for its export prospects. Both the IMF and the World Bank note a tangible improvement in the growth prospects of the US, the Euro Area and Japan. As per the World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, January 2018), global growth is estimated to pick up from 2.4% in 2016 to 3% in 2017 and further to 3.1% in 2018. This recovery is broad-based and largely attributable to a rebound in global investment. Growth in advanced economies is projected to moderate during 2019-20 while that in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to increase further to 4.5% in 2018 and average at 4.7% in 2019-2020. In the Euro area, growth is estimated to improve to 2.4% in 2017 with broad-based improvements across member countries supported by policy stimulus and strengthening external demand. In Japan, GDP growth is estimated to recover to 1.7% in 2017 supported by a recovery in consumer spending and investment as well as the implementation of a fiscal stimulus package but growth is projected to slow down to 1.3% in 2018 as fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and export growth moderates.

Global trade growth is expected to decelerate in 2018, to 4.3% from 4.6% in 2017. Reflecting the broad-based acceleration in the global economy, trade growth picked up in both OECD and non-OECD economies in 2017. According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, export growth was especially strong from emerging markets—where exports grew by 4.8% year on year in January to November, compared with 3.8% export growth in advanced economies. Despite the global economy seeing continued strength in 2018, the global trade growth is expected to slow modestly in line with a deceleration in China's economy, given its outsized role in global supply chains. It is expected that  the authorities' move in 2017 to tighten credit conditions to have a lagged impact on investment and consumption growth in 2018, particularly as regulators tighten controls over household loans.

Indian Economy :

India’s growth prospects have become stronger both in the short and the medium term. Last quarter, the Economy grew by more than 7% , again , becoming the fastest growing Major Economy in the world.  The World Bank has projected India’s growth in FY19 at 7.3% and IMF has projected it to be 7.4%. . The opportunity for India re-emerging as a major contributor for global growth and sustaining this position for many years is the prediction by the leading Economists in the World. India will continue to do well and contribute to the Global Economic growth in the coming years.

Global FDI :

Global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) had fallen by 16% in 2017 to an estimated US$ 1.52 trillion, from a revised US$ 1.81 trillion in 2016. While FDI in developing countries remained at a level similar to the previous year, more investment in sectors that can contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals is still badly needed. Promoting FDI for sustainable development remains a challenge. FDI to developed countries slumped by (minus) 27%, inflows into developing countries remained stable, at an estimated US$ 653 billion, 2% more than the previous year. Flows rose marginally in developing Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, and remained flat in Africa. Developing Asia regained its position as the largest FDI recipient region in the world, followed by the European Union and North America.

After three years of growth, cross-border mergers and acquisitions declined in 2017. Their growth had already slowed in 2016, and they went on to contract by 23% in 2017, to US$ 666 billion. However, this still represented the third-highest level since 2007.

FDI to Developing Economies remained Stable at $653 bn, 2% more than the previous year. FDI to transition Economies declined by 17% to $ 55bn. Value of announced Green field projects showed a decline of 32% to $ 571 bn. The number of projects declined by 17%. In developing countries , project values announced halved.

The tax reforms announced by FDI are likely to affect the investment decisions announced by US MNEs, with consequences for global investment patterns. I was attending a meeting on SelectUSAsummit day before yesterday in Mumbai, where US officials want more investments into US from India. At present FDI from India in US stands at $ 12 bn. They feel this can be multiplied several times. They say, they regained their competitiveness through lowered energy costs which off sets the lower cost of labour in China. They had prepared an ambitious plan to revive their manufacturing sector.

In 2017, inflows to US reduced due to reduced inflows from a number of offshore financial centres.  In UK, inflows declined by 90% due to the uncertainty created by Brexit.

Higher economic growth projections, trade volumes and commodity prices would point to a potential increase in global FDI in 2018. However, elevated geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty could have an impact on the scale and contours of any FDI recovery in 2018. In addition, tax reforms in the United States are likely to significantly affect investment decisions by US multinationals, with consequences for global investment patterns.

India FDI

From the year Apr 2000 to Sep 2017 , for which the data is available, India attracted FDI of $ 518 bn including Equity flows, Re-invested earnings and other capital. The FDI equity Inflows alone amounted $ 353.34 bn. In the first six months of this fiscal $ 21.62 bn was received as FDI, which was 17% higher than the previous year. This was a very good growth considering the lower growth for other countries.

The countries which have the leading share in investment of FDI in India in the last 17 years  include ; Mauritius 34%, Singapore 17%, Japan 7%, UK 7%, Netherlands 6% and USA 6%.

The sectors which have received the maximum FDI include , Services sector 17%, Telecom 8%, Computer Software 8%, Construction Development 7%, Automobile 7%.

The States which received the maximum FDI were : Maharashtra 31%, New Delhi 20%,Karnataka 8%, TN&Pondy 7% and Gujarat 5%. Now the states including UP, AP and Telengana are attracting lot of FDI.

Factors Favouring High FDI in India

India will continue to attract very high FDI due to the following reasons.

1.      High Economic growth. All the leading agencies in the world predict that Indian Economy will continue to grow at more than 7% in the coming years and this will exceed Chinas growth rate. High Economic growth rate provides opportunities for high sectoral growth rates.

2.      Rapid Urbanistion of Metros, Cities and even Rural Areas. Due to digitization and penetration of mobile and data services is enabling transformation of Metros, Cities and Villages. Apart from Agriculture, several other opportunities have arisen on account of Digital Revolution.

3. Ambitious development  targets set by the Government for various infrastructure Sectors. The Central Government and State Governments had drawn up ambitious projects in the areas of, Industrial Corridors ( Centre and States ) ,  Smart cities , Port Development, Railways Development, Road Development, Affordable housing Development. This has attracted the interest of Several countries around the world.
4. Manufacturing Mission. India wants to increase the share of Manufacturing from 16% in GDP to 25% in GDP. With this in view, detailed strategies to develop 25 sectors under Make in India Mission were formulated and in the process of implementation.
5. Apart from that Several programmes like Start Up India, doubling Farmers Income, Digitising the nation and several well defined and well thought out development programmes were introduced by the       Government to increase the GDP growth.
6. Now Commerce Ministry has drawn up a plan to look at Industrial Development from Each Districts perspective and District wise Industrial Developments plan would be made.
7. Liberalisation of FDI. The government has lineralised many sectors for FDI. In many sectors today, 100% FDI is allowed. This has attracted the interest of investors across the world.
8. DIPP under the Ministry of Commerce has an Agency called invest India, whose main role to attract investments into India. They have a detailed database of opportunities for investment in India, which foreign investor can use. The data base is organized in terms of Opportunities in States, Sectors and Sub Sectors. There are expert desks created for different countries. In international investments, one of the issue is , availability of information. The Agency plays a major role in facilitating investments.
9. Introduction of  good governance system by government through new regulatory agencies. Indias regulatory agencies are highly regarded by others in the world. When the whole world was under stress, due to prudential policies developed by the agencies, India withstood the global melt down. New agencies were created in many sectors today. This protects the investors as well as customers. This enables a fair competition.
10. Emergence of Several Globally competitive Businesses. In the initial years, only Textile was globally competitive. Now we have many sectors, which are globally competitive. The sectors which have become globally competitive include Automobiles,Telecom, Chemicals, pharma, IT, Gems and Jewellery, R&D, etc. Several more industries will become competitive as we go forward.
11. When large investments are made, it should give good returns. In India, several sectors are profitable because of the large population we have and the large volumes it provide. This is one of the reasons for India’s attractiveness in the Global Scenario. Apart from the large Size, Constant movement of people to higher categories of income from one category at  all levels, creates demand for products at various price points.There is also an increasing propensity to spend  by  people.
12. Competition between States.  Every state in India has drawn up a plan to grow by more than 10%. Every year, they have started holding investment meets where they invite investors from all over the world. In these conferences, the investment opportunities are show cased and MOUs are signed with the potential investors. They sign MOUs with both Indian and Global Companies to increase the investments in the states.
13. Increased  Foreign Investor Interest in  India and India sectors. Considering the big potential for growth, Investors around the world are coming to India and exploring the scope for investments. In the last year, I had met more than 60 Foreign Delegations , which had shown interest in Investment in India. But one concern today is due to increased protectionism, every country wants investments in their own country. This is not going to affect the investments into India.
14. Role of Government AID Agencies /Pension Funds / Mutual Funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds. Japanese Government Agency, JICA in collaboration with JBIC has provided lot of funds projects in Infrastructure sector. Canadian Pension funds in India have invested more than$ 10 bn. Abudhabi SWF has decided to invest $ 1 bn in the  Infrastructure Finance Arm of the Government. There is lot of low yielding funds across the world have to be deployed in attractive investment opportunities and India provides a good scope for deployment of these funds.
15. Part of the Global Value Chain. India has become a part of the Global Value chain in many sectors and many MNEs have set up a part of their operations in India or adopting a strategy of outsourcing from India.
16. Ease of Doing business. India is one of the countries where ease of doing business is within top 10 in the world as reported by AT Kearney FDI investment Index. India ranks 7^th in the Index. If result oriented indicators like Economic growth rate, Growth rate of different industries, profitability, Ease of obtaining finance and number of entrepreneurs created every year , India’s rank should be in top 5. This is one of the reasons, why FDI investments are increasing in India faster than other countries in the world.

India has got one of the highest savings rate in the world. At 30% of GDP and on $ 2.5 trn, our savings in a year amounts to more than $ 750 bn a year.   All of our future investment needs could be met from only domestic sources. But investment pattern of savings is biased towards investment in Real estate and Gold. Accumulated savings in India is very high , which makes India a very strong country for investments.

In Conclusion, India has a highly favourable Eco system for   investments and other countries can not ignore India’s attractiveness and MNEs around the world should look at India for their global growth . The MNEs in India, should draw up aggressive plans for growth in the Indian market and invest more in India. Indian companies should have more participation in global value chains and more Indian companies should go global and manufacture products in India to serve global markets. .Thank you.